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Coinbase stock price in 5 years: Can COIN shares survive crypto tumult?
The share price for US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) has been volatile so far in November, caught between the bullish influence of a slightly lower US dollar (USD) against the bearish effect of the sudden collapse of the FTX crypto exchange.
COIN fell by 19.7% from the end of October to 14 November, but the stock has recently rallied by close to 13% over the past five days, according to Marketwatch data.
Coinbase (COIN) Live Stock Price Chart.
What is the outlook for the share price over the long term?
Is now the time to add COIN to your portfolio on the dip? In this article we look at the prospects for Coinbase’s stock over the next five years.
Coinbase stock offers crypto proxy.
US-based Coinbase is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume after Cayman Islands registered Binance, based on data from CoinMarketCap. Coinbase was founded in 2012 by its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Brian Armstrong, a former engineer at Airbnb (ABNB), and Fred Ehrsam, a former trader at Goldman Sachs (GS). Ehrsam left the company in 2022 to pursue other opportunities in the cryptocurrency space, but remains on the Coinbase board of directors.
Coinbase stock provides a way for retail and institutional investors to take a position on the cryptocurrency markets in their stock portfolios without having to buy and sell coins and tokens on exchanges or hold them in separate wallets.
Coinbase went public on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange via a direct listing in April 2021 during a strong cryptocurrency market rally. The bitcoin price (BTC/USD) reached a new high at the time above $63,000 in anticipation of the listing.
COIN stock launched with a reference price of $250 per share and closed its first trading session at $328.28 per share. The stock has since been highly correlated with the direction of the bitcoin price, falling to around $224 per share during the May 2021 selloff and rebounding to $342.98 in November 2021 when bitcoin reached its all-time high above $68,000. Both bitcoin and the COIN stock price have been in an extended downward trend in the past year.
What is your sentiment on COIN?
Market sentiment:
COIN stock price faces strong crypto headwinds.
The COIN share price started 2022 at $251.05 per share and declined to $153.19 on 14 March, as the US dollar strengthened and cryptocurrencies sold off in a flight to safe-haven assets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The stock ticked up above $204 toward the end of March, but then resumed its decline and dropped to $53.72 per share on 11 May, as the Terra Luna cryptocurrency ecosystem collapsed and the dollar climbed to a 20-year high against a basket of currencies.
COIN rebounded to $98 per share in August, as the financial markets anticipated a slowdown in the pace of US interest rate hikes, which have continued to drive the dollar higher. But the markets subsequently pulled back and the dollar strengthened as inflation data continued to show consumer prices at their highest levels in decades. That indicated the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would hike interest rates further, supporting the strong dollar and weighing on asset classes including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The COIN stock price declined to 62.78 on 6 September, moved up to $82.55 on 12 September, and then turned lower, falling below $62 later in the month. COIN traded between $63 and $75 in October, before dropping to a fresh low of $45.98 on 9 November in response to turmoil at the FTX exchange, which subsequently filed for bankruptcy protection on 11 November.
In a blog post on 8 November, Coinbase Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Alesia Haas stated:
“Coinbase and our customers are not in any direct danger of liquidity or credit risk. we have very little exposure to FTX and we have no exposure to its token, FTT. Currently we have $15 million worth of deposits on FTX to facilitate business operations and client trades. We have no exposure to Alameda Research, and we have no loans to FTX.”
Haas added: “There can’t be a “run on the bank” at Coinbase. As you can review in our publicly filed, audited financial statements, we hold customer assets 1:1… we believe that what’s happening now is yet another example of why strong, clear regulatory standards are so important. Fragmented, opaque regulatory frameworks in the U.S. are driving crypto to offshore unregulated exchanges, where looser regulations can put customers at risk.
Coinbase financial performance.
At the end of the third quarter, Coinbase held $5.6 billion in total available USD resources, including $5bn in cash and cash equivalents.
"What happened at FTX is not possible to happen at Coinbase, and we are a regulated institution," Armstong told CNBC on 10 November.
Coinbase’s third-quarter results on 3 November showed that the company’s revenue dropped by 53.4% from the third quarter of 2021 to $576mn and it recorded a net loss of $545mn, compared with a net income of $406mn in the third quarter of 2021. But subscription and services revenue increased by 45.5% year on year to $211mn from $145mn.
The company’s monthly transacting users (MTUs) rose by 16.4% year on year to 8.5mn from 7.3mn a year earlier, although that was down from 11.2mn in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Coinbase reduced its operating expenses by 22% during the quarter, including through job cuts, and said it will continue to closely manage its expenses given the current macroeconomic conditions.
Long position overnight fee -0.0308% Short position overnight fee -0.0137% Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC) Spread 0.07 Long position overnight fee -0.0064% Short position overnight fee -0.0059% Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC) Spread 0.05 Long position overnight fee -0.0308% Short position overnight fee -0.0137% Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC) Spread 0.09 Long position overnight fee -0.0230% Short position overnight fee -0.0220% Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC) Spread 0.0120.
Coinbase is expanding its partnerships to increase the adoption of cryptocurrencies among institutional investors and for online payments.
In August 2022, Coinbase announced an agreement with BlackRock (BLK), the world’s largest asset management company, to provide institutional clients of BlackRock’s Aladdin investment management platform with direct access to cryptocurrencies through Coinbase Prime, starting with bitcoin.
In October 2022, the company formed a partnership with Google (GOOG) to allow Google Cloud customers to pay for the services with cryptocurrencies supported by Coinbase Commerce. Under the agreement, Coinbase is transferring its data applications from the Amazon Web Services (AWS) platform to Google Cloud.
The company is moving to a product structure with four groups: consumers, institutions, developers, and platforms. The new platform group “is there to build the shared components across the different product groups that all of our products use, for instance, connecting into the different blockchains out there, generating transactions, storing crypto, things like that,” Armstrong said on the earnings conference call.
“I think there's actually opportunities to thrive in this environment,” Armstrong said.
What is the outlook for the COIN share price over the long term?
Coinbase stock in 5 years: Analysts’ views.
What do analysts think of the Coinbase stock projections for the next five years? What could a Coinbase stock forecast in 5 years' time look like?
Armstrong expects there will be a clearer regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies around the world in five years, which will “unlock a lot more institutional capital”.
Armstrong noted that blockchain scalability will continue to improve, with new Layer 2 solutions that will enable new use cases. More countries could adopt cryptocurrency as legal tender, as El Salvador has with bitcoin, and many are likely to pursue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
What does that mean for the COIN share price?
The median Coinbase stock projection from 25 Wall Street analysts that have issued price targets for the company is $75 per share, with a low estimate of $41 per share and a high of $200 per share, according to data compiled by MarketBeat . There were 23 recommendations on the stock, with 13 analysts rating COIN a “buy”, seven rating it a “hold”, and three marking the stock a “sell”.
Several analysts updated their Coinbase stock projections on 4 November, in response to the company’s third-quarter results. Kenneth Worthington at JP Morgan Chase lifted the investment bank’s price target to $66 from $60 previously, Barclays cut its price target to $63 from $77, Cowen cut it target to $75 from $85 and Wedbush reduced its forecast to $75 from $100.
On 9 November, analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets downgraded the stock from "buy" to "neutral", cutting their price target from $82 to $52 per share. The following day, Citigroup lowered its forecast to $80 from $105 per share. And on 14 November, analyst Will Nance at Goldman Sachs lowered the investment bank’s prediction to $41 from $49 previously.
The Coinbase long-term stock forecast from algorithm-based platform WalletInvestor raised questions about the company's long-term viability, predicting that the share price could drop to $17.48 at the end of 2022 and then plummet to $5.306 in January 2023, $0.0478 in February and subsequently fall to zero.
However, prediction service PandaForecast.com was more optimistic about the outlook for the COIN 5-year forecast, projecting it could head into 2027 at $46.15 per share. The stock could decline from $64.75 at the end of 2022 to $35.59 at the end of 2023 but turn higher to $41.39 in December 2025.
Other platforms refrained from issuing Coinbase stock 5-year forecasts due to high crypto market volatility.
The bottom line.
If you are looking for a COIN forecast to inform your trading approach, it’s important to remember that given the volatility of the cryptocurrency markets, it is difficult for analysts and algorithm-based forecasters to come up with accurate long-term predictions.
We recommend that you always do your own research. Look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinions before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
FAQs.
Where will COIN stock be in 5 years?
It is difficult to say for sure where COIN stock will be price-wise in 5 years’ time due to the volatility of cryptocurrency markets. Prediction service PandaForecast.com is optimistic about the future COIN price, projecting it could head into 2027 at $46.15 per share. Algorithm-based website WalletInvestor, however, sees the stock sharply declining in value by 2023.
Bear in mind that analysts’ Coinbase stock forecasts can be wrong and have been inaccurate in the past. Always conduct your own research before investing or trading.
Will Coinbase stock go up or down?
As with the longer-term stock price projection for COIN, it is difficult to forecast the stock’s price due to broader crypto market volatility. COIN is close to 80% down year-to-date, but has recently rallied by close to 13% over the past five days, according to Marketwatch data.
Remember to always do your own research before trading or investing. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Is Coinbase a good long-term investment?
Whether you think it is a good time to buy Coinbase stock depends on your personal circumstances, such as risk tolerance and investing goals.
Remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Sign-up FREE to receive our extended weekly market update and coin analysis report.
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